The Cash Sewer that is Light Rail

There are two things in this world I absolutely cannot abide--an empty glass, and mindless obsession.  Please indulge me this rare rant.

For years, now, both Pinellas and Hillsborough County Commissions, and the local media, have been browbeating usover light rail.  For years light rail has been part of an overall transportation package that supporters have been trying to sell to voters.  The package was not only rejected every time it came up for a vote, it was rejected by such numbers as to send a clear and convincing message that it is not going to pass, ever.

Those determined to have their choo-choos remain undaunted.  It is not the efficacy of the plan, they are convinced.  It is the ignorance of the electorate.  Voters don't know it, but they want light rail.  They need light rail.  The dumb masses just have to be educated.  The hoi polloi just have to learn.

For a long time, those trying to sell us on light rail have argued that the Tampa Bay area will never be top-tier, with destination cities like Chicago and New York, until we implement a light rail system.

This argument is disingenuous for two reasons.  Neither Tampa (pop 336,823) nor St Petersburg (246,407) comes close to the ridership base of Chicago (2,836,658) or New York (8,274,527).

The Tampa Bay area has hosted Super Bowls, Stanley Cup Finals, the NCAA Final Four, Major League Baseball playoffs, the Republican National Convention, and is scheduled to host the Bollywood Awards.  It is served by one of the top international airports in the nation and is a port of origin for ocean-going cruise ships and freighters.  Its beaches consistently rank among the top-ten anywhere.  The lack of a light rail system seems to have never been a deterrent or even a consideration when deciding on Tampa Bay as a destination.

Nor has transportation, which includes the light rail pipedream, been a main concern of local business leaders.  When asked to list the top three considerations for businesses on the move, the director of Merit Advisors replied, "Workforce, workforce, workforce."  After that was the cost of doing business.

"Mass transit has not been a driving force for us," added the managing director for a commercial real estate firm.  He said he's not sure light rail would work in the Tampa Bay area.  "I don't think you have the densities."

One area that does have the density is San Diego (pop 1,266,731).  Ridership on its 13.5-mile light rail system is touted as being 80,000 daily; however, those are almost all round-trippers for an actual body count of 40,000.

Charlotte (pop 671,588) disingenuously boasts that a one-way ride on its system costs less than "a cup of Starbucks."  The projected cost for its planned 13.5-mile line was $225 million.  Its final cost was $462.7 mil for what ended up being 9.6 miles.  Factor in continuing operating and maintenance costs, and it doesn't take a math major to figure out that a daily ridership of 14,800 (7,400 round-trippers), each paying the price of a cup of coffee, is not what's keeping Charlotte's light rail system solvent.  So, then, what is?  I know, and so do you.  Endless and ever-increasing taxpayer subsidies, that's what.

Let's connect the dots, San Diego's percentage of ridership (less than 4) with the cost of Charlotte's system.  Understand--the cost of the system is not determined by ridership base.  Project these figures onto Tampa's comparatively miniscule population, with a best-case and highly optimistic scenario of 5 percent ridership, and even the mathematically challenged can see that actual per passenger cost will be astronomical.

No one who supports light rail wants to hear the horror stories that abound in opposition.  "Detractors will continue to beat the naysaying drum," writes one columnist, "but true leadership never achieves without enduring.  Fire forges steel...."

Yeah, and fire burns paper, too.  Undertake light rail, and you'll see how fast the flames can consume millions.